What To Expect from the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2026

What To Expect From the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2026 in San Antonio & the Hill Country

If the first half of 2026 has left you feeling frustrated, you're not alone.

Mortgage rates stayed higher than many buyers hoped. Affordability remained a challenge. Inventory improved in some areas but not enough to create the dramatic shift many people were expecting.

And for buyers and sellers in San Antonio, Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, Blanco, and throughout the Texas Hill Country, the question I hear most often is:

"Will the second half of the year be any better?"

No one can predict the future with certainty, but there are several signs pointing toward a more active and balanced housing market as we move through the remainder of 2026.

Here's what buyers and sellers should be watching.

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Mortgage Rates May Finally Start Moving in the Right Direction

Mortgage rates have been one of the biggest obstacles for buyers over the past two years.

A major reason rates have remained elevated is inflation.

When inflation stays high, the Federal Reserve typically maintains higher interest rates, which influences mortgage borrowing costs.

The encouraging news?

Several economic indicators suggest inflation pressures may be easing.

One factor economists are closely watching is energy prices.

Historically, oil prices and mortgage rates often move in the same direction. As energy prices decline, inflation tends to cool, creating a more favorable environment for lower mortgage rates.

While nobody expects rates to suddenly return to the 3% range, many economists believe modest improvements could occur if inflation continues trending downward during the second half of the year.

For buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, even small rate improvements can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments and purchasing power.

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Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

One of the biggest misconceptions in today's market is that home prices are about to fall dramatically.

National forecasts don't support that expectation.

While some markets are seeing price corrections and others are flattening out, most economists still project positive home price appreciation through the end of 2026.

Current forecasts estimate home prices will rise approximately 2.3% nationally this year.

That's not the rapid appreciation we experienced during the pandemic housing boom.

But it's also not a housing crash.

Instead, we're seeing what many experts consider a healthier market:

• Slower appreciation
• More inventory
• More balanced negotiations
• More sustainable long-term growth

For homeowners in San Antonio, Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and Blanco, this is welcome news because it supports home values while creating a more stable environment for buyers.

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Why Buyers Shouldn't Assume Waiting Will Save Money

Many buyers are still hoping that waiting another six months will result in significantly lower home prices.

That may not happen.

If mortgage rates improve, more buyers could re-enter the market.

At the same time, inventory growth appears to be slowing in many areas.

When buyer demand increases faster than housing supply, prices typically experience upward pressure.

That doesn't mean bidding wars are returning tomorrow.

But it does mean buyers shouldn't automatically assume homes will be less expensive later.

Waiting could potentially mean:

• Higher prices
• More competition
• Similar mortgage rates

Every market behaves differently, which is why local guidance matters.

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More Buyers and Sellers Are Expected To Re-Enter the Market

If the market has felt unusually quiet lately, that's because many people have been waiting.

Waiting for:

• Lower rates
• Better affordability
• More certainty
• A clearer economic outlook

But life doesn't stay on pause forever.

People still get married.
Families still grow.
Jobs still change.
Retirements still happen.

The demand for housing never disappeared—it simply slowed.

Many economists believe that if rates improve even modestly, a significant amount of pent-up demand could return to the market during the second half of the year.

That could lead to:

• More buyer activity
• More listings
• More closed sales
• Greater overall market momentum

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What This Means for the San Antonio & Hill Country Housing Market

Real estate remains local.

National forecasts provide context, but what happens in San Antonio, Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and Blanco will depend on:

• Local inventory levels
• Employment growth
• Relocation activity
• Buyer demand
• Neighborhood-specific conditions

What we're already seeing in many parts of the Hill Country is a market that feels more balanced than it did during the frenzy years.

Buyers have more choices.

Sellers still have opportunities.

And both sides have more room to negotiate.

That's generally a healthier environment for everyone involved.

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Bottom Line

The second half of 2026 probably won't bring perfect conditions.

But it could bring better ones.

Mortgage rates may improve.
Buyer activity may increase.
Home sales could accelerate.
Home prices are expected to continue appreciating at a healthy pace.

If you've been waiting for signs that the market is moving in a more favorable direction, this may be exactly what you've been looking for.

The key isn't trying to perfectly time the market.

It's understanding how today's conditions align with your personal goals and making a decision that's right for you.

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Common Questions Buyers and Sellers Are Asking Right Now

Will mortgage rates go down in the second half of 2026?

While no one can predict rates with certainty, many economists believe easing inflation could create conditions for modest mortgage rate improvements later this year.

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Are home prices expected to fall in San Antonio?

Most forecasts call for continued appreciation, although at a slower pace than previous years. Local neighborhoods may perform differently.

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Is now a good time to buy a home in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch?

That depends on your goals, finances, and timeline. Many buyers are benefiting from increased inventory and improved negotiating opportunities compared to recent years.

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Should I wait until 2027 to buy a home?

Waiting doesn't necessarily guarantee lower prices or significantly lower rates. Buyers should evaluate their individual circumstances rather than trying to perfectly time the market.

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Is it still a good time to sell my home?

Many sellers are still successfully achieving strong results, particularly when homes are priced correctly and marketed effectively.