The Truth About Affordability Today

The Truth About Affordability Today in San Antonio & the Hill Country

Let’s be honest about affordability for a minute.

Because if you’re thinking about buying a home in today’s market, you deserve the full picture—not just headlines or overly optimistic soundbites.

And the reality is, affordability today is more nuanced than people make it seem.

Yes, mortgage rates are higher than many buyers would like. But rates are only one part of the equation. Wages, inventory, home prices, and local market conditions all matter too.

For buyers looking in San Antonio, Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, Blanco, and throughout the Hill Country, understanding the full affordability picture is what helps you make smart decisions—not emotional ones.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Moving Again

After trending downward for much of the past year, mortgage rates have started climbing again.

And understandably, that’s frustrating for buyers.

A major reason? Uncertainty.

Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by inflation, bond markets, and global events. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and stubborn inflation are all contributing to volatility.

As Colin Robertson, founder of The Truth About Mortgage, explained:

“You can't have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.”

That uncertainty has pushed rates back upward in a relatively short period of time.

Naturally, many buyers are asking:

“Should I just wait?”

Maybe. But there’s an important reality to understand:

Most economists still expect mortgage rates to hover somewhere in the low-to-mid 6% range, even if conditions improve.

That means waiting may not create the dramatic payment difference many buyers are hoping for.

Wages Are Quietly Helping Affordability

Here’s the part that doesn’t make headlines often enough:

Wages have actually been growing faster than home prices.

Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows:

• Wage growth is around 4% year-over-year
• Home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year

Why does that matter?

Because when incomes rise faster than home prices, affordability gradually improves—even in a higher-rate environment.

It doesn’t solve everything overnight, but it does help buyers regain ground financially over time.

And right now, every bit helps.

Home Prices Have Been More Stable Than Many Expected

A lot of buyers are still mentally stuck in the frenzy years, expecting either:

• massive price spikes
  or
• a major housing crash

But nationally—and in many Texas markets—neither has happened.

Instead, home prices have largely stabilized and are growing at a slower, healthier pace.

And part of that is because buyers finally have more inventory to choose from.

In markets like San Antonio, Boerne, and Fair Oaks Ranch, increased inventory means:

• Less pressure to overbid
• More negotiating power
• More time to make thoughtful decisions
• A better chance of finding a home that truly fits your lifestyle and budget

That’s a meaningful shift from where the market was just a few years ago.

Affordability Isn’t Perfect—But It’s More Balanced

There’s no sugarcoating it:
Buying a home today is still expensive.

But the affordability conversation is more balanced than headlines often suggest.

Rates are higher than buyers want—but wages are improving.
Inventory is growing.
Home price growth has cooled.
Competition is more manageable.

And for many buyers, that combination is creating opportunities that didn’t exist a year ago.

Bottom Line

Affordability today isn’t just about mortgage rates.

It’s about:

• Your monthly payment
• Your income growth
• Local inventory
• Negotiating power
• And whether the numbers work for your life right now

If you want to look at what affordability actually looks like for your budget in San Antonio, Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the Hill Country, let’s run the numbers together.

Sometimes the headlines sound scarier than the reality.

Common Questions Buyers Are Asking Right Now

Is now a good time to buy a home in San Antonio?

That depends on your financial situation and goals, but many buyers are finding better opportunities now because inventory has improved and competition is lower than during the peak frenzy years.

Will mortgage rates go back down soon?

Mortgage rates may fluctuate, but most experts expect them to remain in the low-to-mid 6% range for now. Waiting for dramatically lower rates may not create the savings many buyers expect.

Are home prices dropping in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch?

Most local markets are seeing slower, more stable price growth rather than major declines. Pricing varies heavily by neighborhood, condition, and inventory levels.

Is affordability getting better for buyers?

Affordability challenges still exist, but wage growth, slower home price appreciation, and increased inventory are helping improve conditions compared to the past few years.

Should I wait to buy or start looking now?

For many buyers, the better strategy is evaluating whether today’s monthly payment works for their budget rather than waiting for the “perfect” market conditions.

Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There's been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth:

Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Let's talk. Reach out and let's set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.